WS #13234

The dominant narrative this window is a major de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict. President Trump announced on Truth Social that the US has agreed to cancel a planned attack on Iran, subject to rapidly reaching a deal, with the parameters including the immediate, complete, and total opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran's nuclear threat. This is corroborated by multiple high-signal sources (BBC, Bloomberg, AP, CBS, Al Jazeera, and numerous Bluesky posts), marking a clear shift from the prior 'no new escalation' stance. The market implications are significant: oil prices are likely to slip, pressuring energy stocks (XOM, CVX) and benefiting airlines (DAL, UAL) and refiners (MPC, PSX, VLO); gold loses safe-haven luster; equities could get a lift as geopolitical risk premium unwinds. However, the deal is conditional and fragile—Iran had earlier threatened 'fire of war,' and US embassies issued alerts, so anxiety lingers. The narrative arc is DE-ESCALATING but with high uncertainty. Separately, a MAG7 carve-out: Apple stock fell on weak revenue forecast due to memory shortage, contradicting any tech rally; Amazon stock soared 15% on a 'home run' AWS quarter, and Alphabet rose ~6.7% on AI momentum, showing divergent MAG7 signals. Also notable: US Treasury Secretary Bessent joined Japan in coordinated yen-buying intervention, a rare policy move that could impact currency markets and multinational earnings.