WS #13242

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran de-escalation, but this window introduces a critical counter-signal: Iran's official denial of any agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Multiple Iranian sources (Fars News, Mehr, IRNA) explicitly refute Trump's claim of a deal, stating the strait remains closed and will only reopen under IRGC Navy authorization. This directly contradicts the prior narrative of a breakthrough and introduces significant fragility to the relief rally. However, the market has already priced in some de-escalation (Dow Jones closed at 52,485, Brent fell below $90), and the denial is not yet corroborated by Western sources, creating a high-stakes information gap. Separately, the AI infrastructure selloff continues with a notable divergence: NVIDIA (NVDA) rallied 2.9% on Friday, driven by Amazon's capex reassurance and Moonshot's Alibaba chip deal, while Nebius (NBIS) shows strong fundamentals but a weak price line. Microsoft raised Xbox prices in Europe citing the memory crisis, corroborating the Apple supply-chain warning. The Pentagon's $18.2B interceptor missile replenishment request signals sustained military spending, and the BOJ's hawkish warning on inflation adds a macro headwind. Overall, the narrative is STABLE but fragile, with the Iran denial being the key new development that could reverse the relief rally if confirmed.