WS #13248

The dominant narrative is the US-Iran conflict, which is DE-ESCALATING after Trump announced he cancelled planned strikes, citing a potential deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran has denied any agreement, stating the strait remains closed, creating uncertainty. This is corroborated by multiple sources (AP, BBC, GDELT, Polymarket). The oil market is reacting: OPEC+ approved a 188,000 bpd production increase for September, completing the unwinding of 2023 cuts, but analysts note the impact is limited while Hormuz remains constrained. This is a counter-signal to the oil supply crisis, potentially dampening bullish oil prices. Separately, the AI/semiconductor selloff continues, with the SOX index plunging 21% in July, its worst month since 2008, and the 'one-way trade' in chips coming unglued. This is a high-significance bearish signal for tech. However, Microsoft's record $450B single-day market cap gain (Azure +43%) is a bullish counter-signal within the AI trade, suggesting divergence among MAG7. Amazon's $600M tariff recovery is a minor positive. Eurozone inflation rose to 2.9% in July, driven by energy prices, which could pressure ECB policy. Overall, the market is in a volatile, uncertain state with conflicting signals.