WS #13250

The dominant theme is the US-Iran conflict, which is in a state of flux. President Trump announced he will halt strikes on Iran, claiming a deal is imminent that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end Iran's nuclear threat. However, Iran has officially denied any agreement on the Strait, creating a high-stakes contradiction. This is corroborated by multiple sources (AP, Gulf News, Fars, NY Post) and is the primary driver of oil price direction. OPEC+ has approved a 188,000 bpd production increase for September, the sixth consecutive monthly hike, which acts as a counter-signal to oil supply concerns, though analysts note the actual impact is masked by Hormuz disruptions. The AI/chip selloff narrative continues, with hedge funds selling tech at a historic pace and semiconductor volatility affecting broader sentiment, but Nvidia's $500B backlog and Jensen Huang's comments provide a bullish counter-narrative. Ukraine-Russia conflict is escalating with drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, adding to supply-side risks. The situation is ESCALATING on the geopolitical front, with the Iran deal being the key swing factor.