WS #13254

The dominant theme is the US-Iran conflict and its oil market implications, which is ESCALATING despite Trump's claim of a near-term Hormuz deal. Iran has explicitly denied any agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with state media and officials calling Trump's claim false, and the waterway remains closed except for IRGC-controlled routes. This denial directly counters the de-escalation narrative and is corroborated by multiple sources (Bluesky posts, Al Jazeera, GDELT). Meanwhile, OPEC+ approved a 188,000 bpd production increase for September, completing the unwinding of 2023 cuts, but analysts note this is largely symbolic as Hormuz constraints limit actual supply. Oil prices remain elevated (Brent ~$88, WTI ~$85), and the war has driven massive profits for energy companies (Exxon, Chevron, Valero). The tech sector continues to sell off, with hedge funds deleveraging at historic pace and AI-related volatility, while Apple faces supply constraints and a weak revenue outlook, and SpaceX stock has fallen sharply post-IPO. Eurozone inflation rose to 2.9% in July on energy prices, adding to macro headwinds. The key counter-signal is the OPEC+ increase and potential for supply normalization if Hormuz reopens, which could dampen oil prices and energy stock gains.