WS #13260

The dominant market narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil markets, but this window shows a clear DE-ESCALATION signal: Trump has called off fresh strikes on Iran, conditional on a rapid deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt Iran's nuclear ambitions. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Al Jazeera, Guardian, GDELT, and Bluesky posts) and is a direct counter to the prior bearish oil thesis. However, Iran's foreign ministry has pushed back, saying negotiations with Oman are in final stages but the Strait situation has 'permanently changed' and ships remain stuck, creating mixed signals. Separately, OPEC+ has approved a 188,000 bpd production increase for September, but this is largely symbolic as Hormuz remains choked and Russia's output is below target due to Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries. The Ukraine-Russia energy war is escalating, with strikes on the Saratov refinery and Engels airfield, which supports higher refined product prices. In equities, the MAG7 narrative is highly divergent: Apple had its worst post-earnings drop in 12 years (-7%) due to weak guidance, while Amazon surged 15% and Microsoft added $450B in market cap. NVIDIA has retaken the title of most valuable company. SpaceX is under heavy short pressure ($26B short interest) ahead of its first earnings and share unlock on Aug 4. Bitcoin is weak around $63K, with a Coldcard wallet hack draining $75M, and Coinbase is down 10.6%.