WS #13262

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran conflict, which is in a DE-ESCALATING phase following Trump's announcement of a halt to strikes pending a deal, but with significant contradictions: Iran denies any Hormuz reopening agreement, and Israeli strikes continue in Gaza. This creates a mixed signal for oil markets. OPEC+ approved a 188,000 bpd output hike for September, but actual supply remains constrained by Hormuz disruptions and Russian infrastructure damage, so the market impact is muted. In corporate news, Tesla faces a major overhang from reports of a potential SpaceX merger and China business separation, which Musk dismisses as 'fake news' but which could weigh on the stock. Apple is experiencing a RAM shortage affecting MacBook Air supply, potentially pressuring near-term sales. The AI trade shows resilience with Monolithic Power Systems raising its enterprise data growth outlook to 130%, and Goldman Sachs sees the AI trade stabilizing. Overall, the market narrative is shifting from geopolitical risk premium to supply-side realities, with oil prices likely range-bound.