WS #13265

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran conflict, now in a DE-ESCALATING phase with a critical twist. President Trump halted strikes on Iran citing 'perimeters of a deal' to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran's state media (Fars, affiliated with the IRGC) denies any agreement and insists the strait remains closed. Iran-Oman talks on Hormuz management are 'nearing completion,' but Iran clarifies this does not mean the strait will open. This mixed signal keeps oil prices elevated (~$88 Brent) with supply risks intact. OPEC+ approved a 188,000 bpd production increase for September, but analysts note it's largely symbolic as Hormuz constraints limit actual exports. Exxon and Chevron warn of constrained refined product supplies through H2, supporting refining margins. In equities, the AI trade shows divergence: Microsoft surged on cloud guidance and announced a Copilot Super App, while Meta fell on cash flow concerns. AMD is down 1.9% to $476.15 amid a semiconductor sell-off, but Microsoft's adoption of AMD's Helios AI racks on Azure is a bullish signal for AMD. China says it will never buy Nvidia chips, adding to Nvidia's China risk. Tesla faces a $10M lawsuit over a test-drive accident, and Rivian plans to sell $1.3B in bonds. Bitcoin is under pressure (~$63k), with Strategy (MSTR) reporting an $8.3B unrealized loss. The upcoming week features key earnings (PLTR, AMD, DIS, ABNB) and the US jobs report on Aug 7, which will drive market direction.