WS #13267

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict, which is now showing signs of DE-ESCALATION despite official denials. Trump claims he delayed a strike on Iran pending a deal that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran's officials publicly deny any agreement and say the strait remains closed. However, a separate report indicates Iran-Oman negotiations over Hormuz are in 'final stages,' suggesting a potential diplomatic breakthrough. This mixed signal keeps oil prices elevated but with a bearish tilt if talks progress. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 188,000 bpd for September, but the market impact is muted because Gulf exports remain blocked by the Hormuz closure—this is a counter-signal to oil supply fears, though limited in effect. In tech, the AI trade divergence continues: Microsoft and Amazon surged on strong cloud/AI demand, while Alphabet and Meta fell sharply, and Apple dropped on weak guidance due to memory chip shortages. A new development is AstraZeneca holding talks with Bristol Myers Squibb on a pharma megadeal, which could move both stocks. Additionally, Saylor hints at a Strategy bitcoin buy after a five-week pause, which could support crypto sentiment. Overall, the market is likely to see continued volatility in tech and energy, with oil prices sensitive to Hormuz headlines.