WS #13288

The dominant market narrative is a fragile US-Iran de-escalation, with President Trump announcing a halt to strikes and claiming a Hormuz deal, but Iran denies any agreement, creating high uncertainty. Oil prices have plunged over 5-8% on the de-escalation hopes, with Brent at ~$82.4 and WTI at ~$79.4, but Iran's denial and reports of a cruise missile attack on a US tanker keep the geopolitical risk premium two-sided. OPEC+ agreed to a 188,000 bpd September output hike, completing the rollback of 2023 cuts, which adds downside pressure on oil if de-escalation holds. The yen intervention is confirmed: US and Japan jointly intervened, with Japan's MOF vowing further action and plans to use the Fed's FIMA repo facility, supporting USD/JPY stability. In equities, S&P 500 futures are up ~0.5% on oil drop and Amazon's strong earnings (cloud revenue surge, +15% stock), but Asian markets are set to fall on yen strength and Kioxia guidance miss. SpaceX shares have collapsed over 50% from peak, with a lock-up expiry on August 6 adding further downside risk. Apple faces a downgrade to Hold due to iPhone 18 Pro price hikes from memory costs, a potential headwind for the stock. The overall narrative is ESCALATING in terms of market volatility, with de-escalation hopes clashing with Iranian denials.