WS #13309

The dominant theme remains the de-escalation of US-Iran tensions, with Trump claiming a deal is 'imminent' and talks resuming today, though Iran denies current talks and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Oil prices are at three-week lows, supporting risk assets and Treasuries, but a second LNG tanker (GasLog Shanghai) was hit in the Strait, and Iran claims to have shot down an MQ-9 drone, indicating persistent supply risks. The US-Japan yen intervention is confirmed with Japan spending ~$32bn on Friday, lifting the yen to ~155, and Treasuries are supported by assurances that intervention won't be funded by US debt sales. In corporate news, AstraZeneca is in talks to acquire Bristol Myers Squibb, sending AZN shares down 7% and likely boosting BMY; Prysmian's $95/share offer for Atkore sent ATKR up 27%; KKR's $5.7B acquisition of Integer Holdings is confirmed; and Marriott reported Q2 EPS beat but revenue miss, raising FY26 guidance. Alibaba's Qwen3.8-Max AI model release is corroborated by multiple sources, supporting BABA. The AI selloff continues to pressure tech names like Palantir and Caterpillar, with Goldman warning of an earnings bubble. Bitcoin remains weak near $62.5K amid the Coldcard exploit's fourth wave, with ~$28M more stolen. The narrative arc is STABLE on geopolitics with lingering risks, and the AI selloff persists.