WS #13311

The dominant theme is US-Iran de-escalation, which is DE-ESCALATING further as Trump confirms talks resume Monday and oil prices plunge (Brent -5.7% to ~$83.5, WTI -6% to ~$79.6). This is corroborated by multiple sources (Bloomberg, Reuters, GDELT, Polymarket). The oil drop is a major macro signal: bearish for energy producers (XOM, CVX), bullish for airlines (DAL, UAL) and consumers, and reduces inflation pressure. However, a second LNG tanker (GasLog Shanghai) was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran executed two alleged spies, indicating residual geopolitical risk that could limit the de-escalation rally. The yen intervention story continues: the dollar slid further, and NY Fed data shows the Treasury sold euros to buy yen, not dollars, reducing UST spillover risk. In corporate news, AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb are in preliminary merger talks to create a ~$400B pharma giant; BMY is up ~6-8% premarket, AZN down ~5-6%. This is a high-significance M&A development affecting healthcare. Earnings season is heavy: Palantir reports after the bell today (historically gaps down 56.5% of the time), and SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, and Eli Lilly report this week. Several earnings already out: Tyson Foods missed revenue, Sportradar missed and cut guidance, Marriott raised guidance on US strength, Hess Midstream beat, Bowhead Specialty beat and is being acquired by American Family for $34/share. In crypto, Strategy (MSTR) sold 1,638 BTC and repurchased STRC, while Trump Media sold another 2,628 BTC, adding to bitcoin bearish pressure (BTC ~$62,400). The Coldcard hack has grown to ~$88-90M in stolen bitcoin, a negative for crypto sentiment but a positive for regulated ETFs per Bloomberg's Balchunas. Overall, the market is set to open higher on de-escalation hopes, but the heavy earnings slate and residual geopolitical risks could drive volatility.