WS #13321

The dominant narrative is US-Iran de-escalation, with Trump announcing talks with Iran on Monday after pausing military strikes, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices (Brent -6% to ~$83, WTI -7% to ~$79). This is corroborated by multiple sources (Al Jazeera, GDELT, FT, Polymarket) and is driving a broad risk-on rally: Dow +1.2%, S&P +0.8-1%, Nasdaq +0.9-1.1%, with DAX breaking 26,000. However, Iran denies any talks, creating uncertainty that could reverse the move. The IEA's largest-ever emergency oil reserve release (400 million barrels) is a counter-signal that dampens the bearish oil thesis, though it also signals severe supply disruption. Amazon crossed $3 trillion market cap for the first time, up 5%+ on AI optimism and strong Q2 earnings, a MAG7 positive that stands out against the broader tech narrative. The US-Japan coordinated FX intervention (USD/JPY from 164 to 156.5) revives yen carry trade unwind fears, a potential risk-off catalyst for crypto and risk assets. Other notable signals: White House to host AI companies Tuesday to review AI framework (positive for AI names), Russia opens antitrust case against Apple, and UBS fined $125M for AML violations.