WS #13339

The dominant market narrative is a sharp risk-on rally driven by de-escalation hopes in the US-Iran conflict, with US indices (Dow +1.14%, S&P 500 +1.49%, Nasdaq +2.22%) surging as Brent crude falls ~6.6% on Trump's claim of resumed talks, despite Iran's denial. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, CNBC, GDELT, Polymarket) and is the primary driver of sector rotation: energy (XOM, CVX) is under pressure from both falling oil and Trump's public criticism that they made 'too much money,' while airlines, machinery, and financials benefit from lower oil and dovish Fed expectations. Amazon (AMZN) is a standout MAG7 signal, crossing $3 trillion market cap for the first time on AWS +37% revenue growth and a $496B order backlog, up ~5% and leading the Dow; this contradicts any lingering bearishness on AI capex. Palantir (PLTR) and AMD (AMD) have earnings after the bell with options implying 9-10% moves, and heavy bullish call flow (PLTR $130 calls, AMD $95 calls) suggests high conviction. A separate geopolitical escalation is the Russian drone attack on a beach killing 7, which is unlikely to move US markets directly. The Fed's hawkish split (3 dissenters for a hike) and rising 10-year yields above 4.7% remain a background risk, but the immediate catalyst is the Iran de-escalation narrative, which is STABLE-to-ESCALATING in its positive market impact.