WS #13341

The dominant theme is a sharp de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with oil prices plunging over 5% (WTI below $80, Brent ~$83.5) after Trump called off strikes and claimed negotiations, though Iran denies direct talks and insists Hormuz stays closed until war ends. This is driving a broad risk-on rally: Nasdaq +2.3%, Dow +630 pts, with Amazon crossing $3T market cap on AI/cloud momentum. Key cross-corroborated signals: (1) Oil crash and de-escalation narrative confirmed by multiple sources (oilprice.com, GDELT, CNBC, Al Jazeera) — bullish for consumer/tech, bearish for energy majors (XOM, CVX) and airlines benefit from lower fuel costs. (2) FAA certifies Boeing 737 MAX 7 after years of delays (AP, multiple) — positive for BA. (3) Apple challenges UK iCloud backdoor order (FT, TechCrunch, The Verge, Reuters) — regulatory overhang but limited market impact. (4) Palantir and AMD earnings due tonight/tomorrow with options implying ~9-10% swings — high event risk. (5) Trump criticizes Exxon/Chevron for 'too much money' — political pressure on oil majors. Counter-signal: Iran denies talks and says Hormuz stays closed, so de-escalation is fragile; oil could rebound. Also, Fed rate hike odds rising (3 dissents, market pricing 61% for Sept hike) — a hawkish counter to risk-on. Overall, the market is pricing de-escalation, but the Iran denial and Fed hawkishness are key risks.