WS #13360

The dominant market narrative remains the risk-on rally driven by Trump's de-escalation with Iran, with the Dow closing at a record high and oil prices plunging. However, new signals in this window include Trump's escalating rhetoric ('Iran's last chance', 'decapitation' threat) which introduces uncertainty into the de-escalation thesis, and a notable counter-signal: Trump publicly attacking Exxon and Chevron for making 'too much money', which could pressure energy stocks. Additionally, the 25-state tariff lawsuit is corroborated across multiple sources, reinforcing trade policy uncertainty. In tech, Amazon's market cap surpassing $3 trillion and strong earnings from Palantir, Snap, and Onsemi (already reported) continue to support the AI narrative, but a CNBC report highlights that Big Tech earnings are inflated by investment gains from AI stakes, suggesting underlying growth is weaker than headline numbers. Apple shows a negative divergence, falling 1.78% while other MAG7 stocks rallied, and faces new regulatory actions in Russia and the UK. The Iran situation is STABLE-to-ESCALATING in rhetoric, with Trump claiming Hormuz could reopen 'by tomorrow' while Iran denies talks, creating a volatile oil price environment.