WS #13365

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran de-escalation, with oil prices plunging (Brent -7% to $83.77, WTI -5.1% to $80.34) and equities rallying to record highs (Dow +1.32% to 53,178.41, Amazon crossing $3T market cap). This is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, GDELT). However, the situation is fragile: Iran denies direct talks with the US, and a senior Iranian adviser warns Iran will target US warships if they use unauthorized routes through the Strait of Hormuz, while UKMTO reports a cargo vessel hit by an unknown projectile near Oman. These counter-signals suggest the de-escalation could reverse quickly, keeping oil and energy equities volatile. The 25-state lawsuit against Trump's new tariffs (Section 301) is a high-significance counter-signal to the trade-positive sentiment, potentially dampening the rally if it gains traction. In corporate news, Palantir's blowout earnings (revenue +93%, US commercial +149%) and raised guidance are a high-significance positive for AI/software names, while Amazon's record market cap and strong AWS growth reinforce the tech rally. The yen intervention by Japan/US (spending up to $36.58B) is a macro event with second-order effects on Treasuries and global risk appetite. The Fed's policy uncertainty (Warsh's unclear plans) adds to the macro backdrop. Overall, the market is in a risk-on mode but with significant fragility, and the next 1-8 hours could see sharp moves if Iran talks fail or if the tariff lawsuit escalates.