WS #13369

The dominant theme is a US-Iran de-escalation narrative that is ESCALATING in terms of diplomatic activity but with conflicting signals. President Trump claims talks are ongoing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz 'literally by tomorrow' and frames this as Iran's 'last chance before decapitation,' while Iran denies any negotiations, creating uncertainty. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Al Jazeera, IANS, Adnkronos, Moon of Alabama) and has directly moved oil prices: WTI fell 5.34% to $80.15 and Brent fell ~4.5% to ~$83 on hopes of talks, while US stocks rallied near record highs. A key counter-signal is the 25 Democratic-led states suing the Trump administration over new Section 301 tariffs (10-12.5% on 60 partners), which adds legal uncertainty to trade policy but is unlikely to reverse the de-escalation-driven risk-on tone. In corporate news, Grab raised full-year guidance on strong Q2 results (revenue +22% to $997M, operating profit +186%), with shares up 4.86% after hours, a positive signal for the tech/gig-economy sector. Vertex raised 2026 revenue guidance to $13.1B-$13.2B, and Ameresco surged 26.7% after a record backlog. The US-Japan coordinated FX intervention strengthened the yen 1.4%, pressuring the dollar, which is a notable macro development. Overall, the market is pricing a near-term de-escalation, but the Iran denial and Trump's 'decapitation' rhetoric keep a tail-risk premium in oil and geopolitics.