WS #13373

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran standoff, which is ESCALATING with new developments: a merchant vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile near Oman in the Strait of Hormuz (third consecutive day of attacks), and Iran denies any direct talks with the US while confirming negotiations with Oman over a temporary shipping corridor. Trump's 'last chance' rhetoric and Iran's denial create conflicting signals, keeping oil prices elevated (Brent ~$85, WTI ~$81) and supporting energy names while pressuring airlines and consumer discretionary. Separately, a major counter-signal emerged: Trump publicly attacked ExxonMobil and Chevron for making 'too much money' and demanded lower gasoline prices, a notable break from his pro-oil stance that could pressure these stocks and signal potential policy intervention. In tech, Amazon crossed $3 trillion market cap on strong AI/cloud earnings, while Oracle was downgraded by S&P to BBB- (one notch above junk) due to AI infrastructure debt and OpenAI concentration risk—a bearish signal for ORCL. HSBC reported strong Q2 results (profit up 60%, $1B buyback), and Bayer beat estimates. The yen intervention (US-Japan joint) continues to reverberate, with the dollar at ~157 yen. Crypto shows Bitcoin recovering to ~$64k despite Coldcard hack losses potentially reaching $130M. Wildfires in Spokane and a cyclospora outbreak are regional, not market-moving. The SpaceX earnings call Tuesday is a key upcoming catalyst, with shares down 50% from peak.