WS #13378

The dominant theme is the US-Iran standoff, which is STABLE-to-DE-ESCALATING on the surface but with persistent underlying risks. Trump claims talks are ongoing and calls it Iran's 'last chance,' while Iran denies negotiations, creating a credibility gap. Oil prices rebounded ~1.5% (Brent ~$85, WTI ~$81) after Monday's sharp drop, as a cargo ship was struck in the Strait of Hormuz and six Saudi tankers avoid the Red Sea, offsetting diplomatic optimism. This keeps energy bullish (XOM, CVX, MPC) and airlines bearish (DAL, UAL). A key counter-signal: the US and Japan jointly intervened to support the yen (dollar fell from 163 to ~155), reviving carry-trade unwind fears that could pressure risk assets including crypto, though BTC held near $63,600. Earnings season is a major positive driver: Palantir (PLTR) jumped 16% premarket on blowout Q2 and raised guidance, lifting AI sentiment; ON Semiconductor (ON) rose 7% on AI demand prioritization; BP reported $5.7B profit (beat) but Trump blasted Big Oil for profiting, adding political risk to energy names. Prologis (PLD) announced a £14B recommended takeover of SEGRO, a major logistics M&A signal. Apple (AAPL) is in focus: it briefly removed Telegram from the App Store over CSAM (restored), faces a trade-secrets lawsuit from OpenAI, and India proposed extending tax breaks to 2041, supporting its manufacturing shift. The 25-state lawsuit against Trump's tariffs is a legal overhang but not new. SpaceX's first earnings call as a public company is imminent, with shares down 50% from peak, a potential catalyst for TSLA given merger rumors.