WS #13380

The dominant theme is the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, which is ESCALATING. Multiple sources (Reuters, NYT, AP, S&P Global, UKMTO) corroborate that a cargo ship (Minoan Pioneer) was struck by a projectile near Oman, with one seafarer missing, while Iran and Oman are reportedly close to a deal that would give Iran control over inbound shipping and a 'service fee' — effectively cementing Tehran's control over the waterway. Iran's senior advisor threatened to attack US warships that attempt to alter shipping routes, and Iran's foreign ministry denied US talks, saying only Oman is involved. This contradicts Trump's claim of imminent talks and keeps oil supply risk elevated. Brent rebounded ~1.5% to ~$85 after a 7% drop, with Goldman Sachs seeing $80-90 range until clarity. Saudi Aramco reported a 44% profit surge and said the conflict has wiped 2.6 billion barrels from global supply, delaying inventory recovery by up to 18 months. This is a high-significance bullish signal for oil and energy equities, and bearish for airlines and shipping. Separately, BP reported Q2 profit of $5.7B (up 78% QoQ, beating estimates) and announced sale of its US biogas business Archaea, reinforcing the oil-major earnings beat theme. SpaceX reports its first earnings as a public company after the bell today; stock is down ~50% from record high and ~15% below IPO price, with investors focused on cash burn and AI spending — a key catalyst for tech/space sentiment. Palantir raised its full-year revenue outlook by ~$500M and beat Q2 estimates, but its stock closed below key SMAs, signaling short-term bearish technicals despite strong fundamentals. Apple is in a legal dispute with OpenAI over trade secrets, with OpenAI publicly disputing Apple's claims; this is a MAG7-specific overhang but not yet market-moving. The yen intervention narrative is stable, with USD/JPY around 157.5 and intervention efforts failing to turn the tide, per Bloomberg.