WS #13391

The dominant theme remains the de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with Treasury Secretary Bessent stating a Hormuz deal could come 'today or tomorrow', corroborated by multiple sources including CNBC, GDELT, and Seeking Alpha. This has driven a broad risk-on rally with the Dow at a record high and oil prices plunging (Brent below $80, WTI near $76). However, a cargo ship (Minoan Pioneer) was hit by a projectile in the strait, and Secretary of State Rubio said 'nothing final' on Hormuz, underscoring the fragility of the situation. The macro narrative is STABLE-to-ESCALATING toward resolution, but the ship attack and Rubio's caution are counter-risks. Separately, strong earnings from Caterpillar (CAT +8-11%) and Palantir (PLTR +15-18%) are driving the rally, with PLTR's 'otherworldly' quarter and raised guidance signaling continued AI infrastructure demand. Jeff Bezos filed to sell $4 billion in Amazon stock, causing AMZN to fall over 2% despite record highs, a notable counter-signal to the tech rally. The macro narrative is ESCALATING toward resolution, but the ship attack is a counter-risk.