WS #13399
The dominant market narrative remains the de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with Treasury Secretary Bessent stating a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached today or tomorrow, corroborated by Qatar's confirmation of progress in mediation. This has driven crude oil down over 4% and pushed the S&P 500 and Dow to record intraday highs, with the Nasdaq up 1.6%. However, the situation is fluid: Iran denies talks, a bulk carrier was struck near Hormuz, and the US military is reportedly depleted of key long-range missiles, limiting deterrence. Palantir's blowout Q2 (revenue +93%, raised guidance) is a standout AI catalyst, lifting the stock ~25% and reinforcing the AI trade. Amazon's market cap surpassed $3 trillion, but Bezos's planned $4.1B share sale is a notable bearish counter-signal for AMZN. Fed officials (Williams, Paulson) signal rates are sufficient, dampening rate-hike expectations, which supports growth stocks. The dominant theme is DE-ESCALATING on geopolitics, but with high volatility and conflicting signals.
Topics
Key developments
- Bessent says US-Iran Hormuz deal possible within days, oil plunges, stocks hit records
- Palantir Q2 revenue +93%, raises guidance, stock jumps ~25%
- Amazon market cap tops $3 trillion, but Bezos plans $4.1B share sale
- US military depleted 65% of Patriot interceptors, 50% of Tomahawks, limiting deterrence
- Fed officials Williams and Paulson signal rates sufficient, dampening hike expectations