WS #13409

Markets are surging to record highs on a combination of strong AI earnings (Palantir +26%, Caterpillar +5.8%) and escalating hopes of a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying a deal could come 'today or tomorrow.' Oil prices are plunging (WTI -5.5% to ~$75.88, Brent -5.2% to ~$79.40) on these hopes, which is a counter-signal to the prevailing war-driven oil spike narrative. However, the situation on the ground remains tense: Iran's IRGC shot down a US MQ-9 drone over the Strait, a cargo ship was struck by an 'unknown projectile' (Minoan Pioneer, one crew missing), and Iran demands concessions (transit fees, sanctions relief) for reopening. This creates a high-stakes binary: a deal would crush oil and boost equities/airlines, while a breakdown could spike oil and trigger risk-off. The Chipotle salmonella outbreak is a significant single-stock story: Minnesota health officials linked jalapeños to 110 cases, CMG pulled them and shares fell up to 9%. Jefferies is facing new evidence of fake invoices at Sapphire Minmetals, a potential credit event. Apple is escalating its trade secrets lawsuit against OpenAI, seeking a preliminary injunction. Bezos plans to sell ~$4B of Amazon stock, pressuring AMZN. Novo Nordisk shares fell 5% on guidance. These are the key actionable signals.