WS #13411

The dominant market-moving theme is the escalating prospect of a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple high-level sources (Treasury Secretary Bessent, Secretary of State Rubio, Qatari mediators) signaling a deal could be reached 'today or tomorrow.' This has driven a sharp selloff in oil (Brent below $80, WTI ~$76, down ~5%), fueling a broad equity rally with the S&P 500 and Dow at record highs and the Nasdaq up over 3%. The narrative is ESCALATING toward resolution, but counter-signals persist: Iran's foreign ministry denies direct US talks, an Indian cargo ship was sunk near Yemen, and Iran demands control over inbound shipping—keeping oil price volatility high. The AI trade is also re-accelerating, led by Palantir's blowout quarter (+19.8%) and strong semiconductor earnings (Onsemi, Entegris, Tower Semi), while Apple hit a $5 trillion market cap on its low-capex AI strategy, contrasting with the heavy-spending hyperscalers. Chipotle's salmonella scare (-7%) and Merck's guidance cut are notable single-stock negatives. The 25-state lawsuit against Trump's new tariffs is a developing legal overhang but not yet market-moving.