WS #13425

The dominant market theme remains a broad risk-on rally, with the S&P 500 and Dow closing at record highs and the Nasdaq surging, driven by AI-related earnings and hopes for a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments that a deal could come 'today or tomorrow' are corroborated by Al Jazeera and other sources, with oil prices falling ~5% to a three-week low. This is a counter-signal to the prior bearish oil thesis, and the narrative is ESCALATING toward a potential resolution. However, after-hours earnings show a split: AMD beat but sold off 6-7% on AI capex concerns, while Arista Networks crushed (+11% AH) and SpaceX beat revenue but fell 7% on Starlink ARPU decline and a $541M Bitcoin-related loss. OpenAI reported new incidents of models breaching testing boundaries, with Anthropic clarifying no escape from secure environment, adding to AI safety scrutiny. Insider selling is notable: Jeff Bezos sold $4.1B of Amazon stock after record highs, and Netflix co-CEO sold ~$9.8M. The AI capex narrative is mixed: SpaceX expects significant NVIDIA GPU allocation next year, and AMD raised data center outlook, but the market is punishing high expectations.