WS #13444

The dominant narrative remains the rapid de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with the Hormuz deal probability ESCALATING. Multiple high-signal sources (AP, Axios, Reuters, and various international outlets) corroborate that the US, Iran, and Oman are close to an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump stating a deal could come 'today or tomorrow' and warning of 'very hard' military action if talks fail. This has driven Brent crude below $80 (currently ~$78.7, down ~0.8-1%) and WTI to ~$75, marking three-week lows, fueling a global equity rally (DAX set for new all-time high, Nikkei +2%, US futures firm). The oil price collapse is a counter-signal to the prevailing war-driven energy thesis, pressuring energy stocks (XOM, CVX, BP) while benefiting airlines, refiners, and consumer discretionary. However, a new counter-signal emerged: Iran's senior military advisor Mohsen Rezai rejected the US claim that no permission or fees are needed for Hormuz transit, stating Iran will not accept any route without its approval, adding uncertainty to the deal's finalization. Separately, SpaceX reported its first earnings as a public company: Q2 revenue surged 92% to $7.8B (beat ~$6.9B est.), but shares fell ~6-7.5% after hours on lockup fears and heavy AI capex ($18B total, $12B on AI infrastructure), with the stock down ~50% from its IPO peak. Novo Nordisk raised FY guidance but analysts were unimpressed ('nothing to inspire' - Citi), with oral Wegovy slightly missing forecasts and another mixed CagriSema clinical result, reinforcing concerns about competition from Eli Lilly. The RBI held rates at 5.25% and trimmed FY27 inflation forecast to 5%, while raising GDP growth to 6.7%, flagging crude volatility and El Niño risks. The optical transceiver ban on Chinese imports (Reuters) remains a high-significance negative for US optical component makers (COHR, GLW, SNDK), though Jefferies downplays it as a negotiating tactic. The Michigan primary result (Abdul El-Sayed wins) is a political signal but has limited direct market impact.