WS #13446

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran Hormuz de-escalation, which is ESCALATING toward a concrete deal. Multiple sources (Axios, AP, Xinhua, The National, and various GDELT outlets) corroborate that a 60-day interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is being drafted, with Trump saying a deal could come 'today or tomorrow' and Bessent signaling 'today or tomorrow' as well. This has driven Brent crude down ~5% to $79.36 and WTI to $75.77, with Asian markets rallying (Nikkei +3.3%, KOSPI +4.4%, Taiwan +2.88%) on AI/semiconductor strength. The counter-signal to the bearish oil thesis is the Houthis' continued attacks on Saudi tankers (8th strike claimed) and the Pentagon's reported depletion of missile stockpiles (though Hegseth denies this), which could reignite supply fears. Separately, SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company shows a net loss of $541M and a 6x capex surge to $18.4B, causing an 8% premarket drop; this is a MAG7-adjacent signal (TSLA, NVDA) that contradicts the broader AI rally narrative. The RBI held rates at 5.25% as expected, raising GDP forecast to 6.7% and lowering inflation to 5%, which is neutral for markets. The US-China trade truce extension for 90 days is a positive carry-forward that reduces trade war risk. Overall, the market is pricing in a Hormuz deal, but the Houthi attacks and missile stockpile concerns are the key risks to watch.