WS #13448

The dominant market narrative is the imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple sources (CNBC, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, GDELT) corroborating that a US-Iran-Oman deal could be announced as early as today (Aug 5). This has driven oil prices down sharply (Brent ~$80, WTI ~$76), Treasury yields lower (10Y at 4.6086%), and global equities to records (S&P 500, Dow, Nikkei +3.66%). However, a counter-signal emerged: Iranian state television stated talks with Oman are NOT related to any immediate reopening of the Strait, and Iran's Supreme Leader advisor threatened to hit any warship approaching a second corridor. This creates uncertainty and could reverse the oil price decline. Separately, AMD plunged 8% premarket despite beating earnings, as investors were disappointed that results fell below 'more optimistic estimates' and concerns about AI capex. SpaceX also tumbled ~10% after its first earnings report showed massive AI capex ($18.4B in Q2, 6x YoY) that unnerved Wall Street, despite revenue beating. These AI-related selloffs contrast with the broader tech rally, suggesting a bifurcation in AI sentiment. The RBI held rates at 5.25% as expected, with a dovish tone and lower inflation forecast, supporting Indian equities. Other notable signals: US bans exports of critical minerals (tungsten, black mass), China announces countermeasures; Houthis attacked a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea; Russia launched a deadly strike on Kyiv (17 killed); and the US is investigating 1.2 million Tesla vehicles for suspension issues.