WS #13451
The dominant market narrative is the imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple sources (Axios, Trump, Bessent, Qatar) indicating a US-Iran-Oman interim deal could be announced as early as Wednesday. This is driving oil prices down (Brent ~$79, WTI ~$75.5), gold up to a one-month high above $4,100, and fueling a broad risk-on rally in equities. However, this is partially offset by continued Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and Iran's denial of a final agreement, keeping geopolitical risk elevated. In earnings, Disney (DIS) delivered a strong beat driven by 'Toy Story 5' and raised guidance, while Uber (UBER) fell on soft Q3 guidance. Eli Lilly (LLY) raised revenue guidance but trimmed EPS, and Shopify (SHOP) surged on a massive beat. SpaceX's first post-IPO report showed a 92% revenue jump but a net loss and heavy AI capex, sending shares down 8% and impacting AMD (AMD) as SpaceX shifts to Nvidia (NVDA). China announced retaliatory sanctions and drone export curbs against the US, adding to trade tensions. The AI infrastructure theme continues with banks refinancing $15bn of Google-Anthropic data center debt.
Topics
Key developments
- US-Iran-Oman near interim deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz; announcement possible Wednesday
- Disney beats Q3 estimates on 'Toy Story 5', raises FY26 EPS guidance
- Uber Q2 in-line but Q3 guidance misses; shares fall
- Shopify skyrockets on Q2 beat, raises guidance
- Eli Lilly raises FY26 revenue outlook to $85-87B, trims EPS guidance; stock up 5%
- SpaceX first post-IPO report: revenue +92% but net loss; shares drop 8%; shifts to Nvidia
- China announces retaliatory sanctions and drone export curbs on US
- Banks to refinance $15bn of Google-Anthropic data center debt into bond market