WS #13461

The dominant theme remains the Strait of Hormuz reopening narrative, which is now ESCALATING with concrete progress: AP reports Iranian and Omani negotiators have finalized a draft agreement to reopen the strait, pending Iran's supreme leader sign-off, while Trump says a deal could come today or tomorrow. This is corroborated by multiple sources (AP, Reuters, Polymarket activity). However, a counter-signal emerged: Houthi rebels struck a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea, and Gulf crude/condensate exports remain 40% below pre-war levels, keeping oil prices elevated (Brent ~$79-80). The US Treasury delisted Fly Baghdad Airlines, a minor sanctions easing signal. In earnings, SpaceX's first report since IPO showed a revenue beat but a capex shock ($18.4B, 6x YoY) driven by AI spending, sending the stock down ~10-12% and dragging AMD (which slid 8% on reports SpaceX picked Nvidia exclusively). Disney reported strong Q3 results with EPS beat ($2.06 vs $1.86), streaming profitability doubling, and raised buyback to $9B+, while ESPN was a weak point. Eli Lilly crossed $1 trillion market cap on GLP-1 momentum. Teradata collapsed 20% on weak guidance. The US services PMI was mixed (ISM 54.1 miss, S&P Global 54.6 beat), and EIA crude inventories built 2.5M barrels vs expected draw, pressuring oil. Gold surged ~4% to $4,238/oz. The CLARITY Act crypto bill is now unlikely to pass in 2026 (Polymarket odds crashed to 14%).