WS #13466

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is now ESCALATING with concrete progress: Iran's Foreign Ministry announced an agreement with Oman on the Strait, and a joint announcement is in its final stage, with Trump saying a deal could come within 48 hours. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Al Jazeera, AP, Reuters via Bluesky, and Polymarket activity). The deal is expected to ease oil supply concerns and inflation, supporting a risk-on tone. However, Cushing crude inventories rose 2.356M barrels versus an expected decline, a bearish oil signal that could offset some of the deal's impact. Gold surged past $4,261/oz (+4%), reflecting safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar, while the ISM Services PMI came in at 54.1 (slightly below forecast) with a stagflationary mix (employment contraction at 47.4, prices paid at 70.3), reinforcing a two-speed economy and AI concentration. In earnings, Disney beat profit expectations and is exploring a free ad-supported streaming tier, while AMD fell on an underwhelming forecast. SolarEdge plunged 22% on weak Q3 guidance. Broadcom is breaking out on strong AI fundamentals. NVDA reclaimed all anchored VWAPs, signaling technical strength. Crypto remains weak (Fear & Greed 27), but whales are accumulating, and Circle (CRCL) beat EPS but revenue missed. The Fed's Dallas and NY banks are launching a pilot survey of the private credit market, a regulatory signal for that sector.