WS #13478

The dominant market narrative is the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple sources (AP, Reuters, NYT, GDELT) corroborating that Iran and Oman have agreed on a shipping route and are finalizing a joint statement, while Trump claims a deal could come as early as Wednesday. However, Iran's deputy foreign minister denies recent talks with the US, and reports indicate the deal would give Iran control over ships entering the Gulf, with shipping associations opposing tolls. This is a high-significance geopolitical development with direct implications for oil prices (WTI ~$75, Brent ~$80), energy stocks, and shipping. The narrative is ESCALATING in terms of deal proximity but with significant uncertainty and potential for Iran to gain leverage. Separately, Alphabet's AI leadership reshuffle (Hassabis to chief scientist, Jeff Dean leaving) is confirmed by multiple sources, with GOOGL down 4%, and there are reports of a $1.5B deal with AI startup Mechanize. This is a MAG7 carve-out signal contradicting the broader tech rally. SpaceX's first earnings as public company showed 92% revenue growth but heavy capex ($18.4B) and a net loss, with shares sliding; this is a high-significance development for the AI/space complex. Other notable signals include AMD's post-earnings selloff despite strong results (DZ Bank raises target to $590), Arista's blowout quarter (Q2 revenue +38%, Q3 guide above Street), and several earnings beats/misses (Kraft Heinz, Pinterest, Bloomin' Brands +40%, Galaxy Digital -10%).