WS #13490

The dominant macro narrative is the US-Iran-Oman Hormuz deal, which remains STABLE with Kalshi odds jumping to 37% (+16) on AP reporting the deal is close, though both sides would need to back down. This is offset by fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers, keeping oil prices elevated (Brent ~$79.5, WTI ~$75.2) and supporting energy names. The Fed is the key new overhang: Fed Governor Cook, in a speech, signaled a hawkish tilt—'running out of room to wait for disinflation,' 'inflation risks outweigh job market risks,' and 'ready to raise rates if disinflation does not return'—while also noting the job market is resilient and AI hasn't caused job losses. This corroborates Kashkari's earlier hike argument and raises September hike odds (Polymarket 65%), pressuring growth stocks. In tech, Alphabet (GOOGL) remains a high-significance MAG7 carve-out: shares fell ~4% on AI leadership shakeup (DeepMind CEO steps back, chief scientist departs), contradicting the broader tech rally (NVDA +3.9%, ANET +4.5%). Meta (META) released Muse Code, its first AI coding agent, priced cheaper than OpenAI/Anthropic, bullish for META. SpaceX (SPCX) earnings digested: revenue nearly doubled to $7.81B, AI revenue +213%, but capex exploded to $18.37B and lockup expiration looms, causing ~10% pre-market drop; NVIDIA (NVDA) won exclusive pact for space-based AI servers. Earnings season is heavy: strong beats from Western Digital (WDC), SanDisk (SNDK), eBay (EBAY), AppLovin (APP), Motorola (MSI), McKesson (MCK), Corpay (CPAY), and Figma (FIG) on AI agent monetization; misses from Duolingo (DUOL), Bumble (BMBL), Talen Energy (TLN), Forward Air (FWRD), and Clearfield (CLFD). E.l.f. Beauty (ELF) surged on $50M tariff refunds, net income +100%. Trump preparing tariffs on imported polysilicon could boost domestic solar/semiconductor producers. Solventum (SOLV) to separate Health Information Systems, unlocking value. UWM Holdings announced $2.05B strategic capital partnership with Ishbia Family and Oaktree.