WS #13506

The dominant theme remains the Iran-Oman Hormuz shipping route agreement, which is now in its final stages with coordinates agreed and a joint statement being drafted, contingent on the US not obstructing. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, Al Jazeera, AP, Bloomberg, GDELT, and various international outlets). Oil prices have fallen for a third day, with WTI near $75 and Brent around $79-80, as traders price in a potential reopening. However, Iran has demanded a 7% transit fee on commercial ships (with Chinese and Russian vessels exempt), while Oman discusses ~3% and the US wants no fees, creating a potential sticking point. The Houthis claimed an attack on a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea, briefly pushing Brent above $80, but this was not independently verified. The US has refunded ~$100 billion of tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, a counter-signal to the trade-war narrative. In tech, Alphabet (GOOGL) fell over 4% after AI leader Jeff Dean and three other top scientists left to form a new AI company, Discovery Loop, and Demis Hassabis stepped down from daily DeepMind management, raising concerns about Google's AI competitiveness. This is a MAG7 carve-out contradicting the broader tech rally. SpaceX (SPCX) fell 13.6% on Wednesday due to surging AI capex, with a 911 million share lock-up expiry Thursday, pressuring the stock further. Nvidia (NVDA) rose 3.7% after Musk said SpaceX will use Nvidia chips exclusively for its AI infrastructure. SanDisk (SNDK) tumbled after hours on weak guidance despite a beat, reflecting memory price peak concerns. The FDA approved Takeda's ORZEYFUL (oveporexton), the first orexin agonist for narcolepsy type 1, a positive catalyst for Takeda and the sleep disorder space. The CDC linked a multistate Salmonella outbreak to jalapeños from Sinaloa, Mexico, distributed by Coast Citrus, with Chipotle and Qdoba stopping service, potentially impacting restaurant stocks. The USDA suspended avocado inspections in Michoacán due to a security threat, disrupting avocado exports and potentially affecting prices and related companies. The BOJ's outlook report added hawkish language on inflation overshooting, raising September rate hike expectations, which could impact yen and Japanese equities. Overall, the Hormuz deal narrative is ESCALATING with concrete progress, but the fee dispute and US naval blockade remain unresolved.