WS #13512

The dominant narrative remains the Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz deal, which is now ESCALATING with concrete progress: Iran and Oman have agreed on geographic coordinates for a new shipping route, with a joint statement in final drafting, and Trump says a deal could come 'today' or 'tomorrow.' This is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, BBC, and various regional outlets). However, a counter-signal has emerged: a tanker reported hearing two explosions in the Strait of Hormuz near Oman, and Iran warns the strait will not reopen until the US lifts its blockade, while the proposed deal would give Iran control of inbound traffic—a major concession. This mixed picture keeps oil prices volatile but currently lower on optimism, with Brent around $79 and WTI near $75. Gold has hit a seven-week high at $4,285-4,289/oz, driven by weaker dollar and lower yields, with analysts eyeing $5,000 if the 200-DMA breaks. The Fed's September rate-hike odds have eased to 55% from 67%, supporting gold and pressuring the dollar. In equities, the AI-driven rally is stalling: Asian tech shares fell sharply (SK Hynix -6.95%, Samsung -2.44%, Kioxia -9.61%), and US tech giants like Alphabet (-4%) and AMD (-7%) dropped on profit-taking and concerns over AI spending. SpaceX fell 13.6% on capex concerns, while Nvidia rose 3% on Musk's endorsement. The FDA approved Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine, a positive catalyst for MRNA. Alphabet announced a major AI division reshuffle with Demis Hassabis stepping down as DeepMind CEO, which could signal strategic uncertainty. The US is set to impose a 15% tariff on polysilicon and price floors, impacting solar and semiconductor supply chains. The House passed an $893B defense bill, and the US has refunded ~$100B in tariffs, a counter to trade-war concerns. Overall, the market is in a 'risk-on but cautious' mode, with the Hormuz deal being the key swing factor.