WS #13517

The dominant market narrative is the US-Iran/Oman Hormuz deal, which is STABLE but with a notable counter-signal: Iran explicitly denies negotiating with the US, saying talks are only with Oman, and that reopening hinges on the US ending its naval blockade. This tempers the bullish 'deal imminent' thesis. Oil is sliding as the war premium drains, but a UKMTO report of two explosions near a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and a heavy explosion in Sanaa, Yemen, remind of residual risk. Gold hit a seven-week high above $4,300/oz, driven by safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar, despite Hormuz optimism. In equities, a semiconductor selloff is spreading from Asia (KOSPI -4%, SK Hynix -9%, Samsung -6%) to Europe, triggered by disappointing guidance from Sandisk and Western Digital, and AMD's post-earnings drop. This is a key counter to the AI rally narrative. SpaceX shares plunged 13.6% after first public earnings, with a lockup expiration Thursday freeing ~911M shares, pressuring the AI/space complex. On the earnings front, Deutsche Telekom expanded its buyback by €3B and raised FCF guidance (bullish for telecom), while WPP surged 27% on cost-cutting progress. Fed Governor Lisa Cook signaled readiness to hike rates if inflation persists, a hawkish counter to rate-cut hopes. Bitcoin ETFs saw $244M inflows, a third consecutive day, but Bitcoin developers flagged 85 critical bugs in an 'extremely bad' security situation, a potential negative for crypto sentiment.