WS #13520

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz reopening, which is DE-ESCALATING but with significant new complications. Iran and Oman have reached an understanding on shipping coordinates and are finalizing a joint statement, but Iran explicitly denies direct US negotiations and insists the strait won't reopen unless the US lifts its naval blockade. Critically, a proposed deal would give Iran control over ships entering the Gulf and involve transit fees of 3-7% of cargo value, which the US and shipping associations strongly oppose. This has created a two-way oil market: Brent is hovering around $79-80, WTI around $75, with prices slipping on Iran-Oman progress but supported by Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers and a sharp drop in Hormuz traffic (only 2 vessels vs 130-140 pre-war). The semiconductor/AI selloff is ESCALATING: Sandisk's mixed guidance triggered a 10% plunge in SK hynix and a 4.58% KOSPI drop, while Alphabet fell ~4% on a major AI leadership reshuffle (Jeff Dean departing, Hassabis moving to Alphabet chief scientist). SpaceX fell over 12% post-earnings despite retail dip-buying. Gold is surging to 7-week highs near $4,300 on easing rate-hike expectations, and copper hit record highs on tariff speculation. The Fed narrative is shifting: Kashkari and Cook signal potential rate hikes, but market pricing for a September hike has fallen to 55%.