WS #13567

The dominant macro theme remains the Strait of Hormuz conflict, which is ESCALATING. Iran's parliament is reviewing a bill to ban US/Israeli ships from the strait and impose tolls (up to 20% of cargo value), while Iran-Oman talks have reached an 'understanding in principle' but do not mean full reopening. Brent jumped 3.83% to $82.49 and WTI rose 2.75% to $77.29 on these threats, with oil majors (XOM, CVX, COP) up to 2%. This escalation is pressuring equities (Dow -0.9%, S&P -0.2%) and stoking inflation fears, reinforced by Fed's Musalem hawkish comments (inflation too high, balance of risks tilted to higher price pressures). Counter-signal: US-Iran deal hopes persist, but Iran's toll plan and threats to Gulf infrastructure (energy/water) if US strikes continue are the dominant driver. Second-order effects: oil spike benefits energy (XOM, CVX, XLE) and refiners (MPC, PSX, VLO), but hurts airlines (DAL, UAL, AAL) and shipping (MATX, ZIM). The White House confirmed polysilicon tariffs (15% ad valorem + minimum import prices) effective Dec 4, 2026, a significant policy for solar/semiconductor supply chains. In earnings, major after-hours movers: Trade Desk plunged 22% on revenue miss, Atlassian surged 33% on strong RPO, Twilio jumped 15.7% on guidance, Roku beat revenue estimates, Microchip raised guidance, and Cloudflare popped on earnings beat. Bitcoin miners MARA and CleanSpark reported double-digit revenue drops. Also, SpaceX/Tesla announced a $16.8B Terafab chip plant in Texas, and Alphabet is raising at least $25B in bonds amid AI talent departures.