WS #13571

The dominant market narrative remains the Strait of Hormuz conflict, but this window shows a clear ESCALATION in oil price risk. Brent crude rose ~3.9% to $82.54 and WTI ~3.3% to $77.71 as reports emerged that a potential Iran-Oman deal would give Tehran control over a narrow central shipping corridor and possibly allow transit fees, directly contradicting US insistence on free passage. This dampens prior optimism about a quick reopening, with multiple sources (Ship & Bunker, CNA, NY Post, Thanh Nien) corroborating the fragility of any deal. The oil spike is pressuring equities (Dow -0.85%, S&P -0.18%) and lifting gold to $4,262/oz (+5.4% on week). A counter-signal exists: Trump stated the war will end 'pretty soon' and the US insists on no tolls, but the market is pricing in continued disruption. Separately, a major tech earnings shock: Datadog (DDOG) plunged 19% despite record revenue on guidance warning of AI customer usage decline, while Amazon (AMZN) fell >10% after hours on earnings miss and $200B capex guidance, dragging tech futures (Nasdaq -1.2%). This creates a MAG7 carve-out: Amazon's AI capex concerns contrast with the broader 'AI infrastructure' theme. Also notable: Trump signed an executive order imposing a 15% tariff on polysilicon products, boosting domestic solar/polysilicon names like T1 Energy (TE) and potentially impacting solar panel importers. SpaceX announced a $16.8B Terafab semiconductor plant in Texas with Tesla, a positive for AI chip supply but also signaling massive capex. The FCC voted to eliminate the 39% broadcast ownership cap, a catalyst for media consolidation (FOX, PARA, WBD). Finally, a cyberattack campaign using AI voice cloning targeted major hedge funds (Point72, Two Sigma, Citadel, Millennium), raising cybersecurity concerns for financial firms.