WS #13573

The dominant Strait of Hormuz narrative is ESCALATING with new specifics: Iran claims a deal with Oman is in 'final stages' to create a temporary, narrow central corridor through the strait, with potential transit fees and Iranian control over inbound traffic. This is corroborated by multiple sources (GDELT, NY Post, CNA, oilprice.com) and has driven oil prices sharply higher (Brent +3.8% to ~$82.5, WTI +3.3% to ~$77.7), reviving inflation concerns ahead of the US jobs report. The US insists on no fees or impediments, creating a clear point of tension. This is a counter-signal to the prior week's optimism about a quick deal, and it is pressuring equities (Dow -0.85%, S&P -0.18%, Nasdaq -0.06%) while lifting the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.67%. Separately, Amazon (AMZN) reported Q2 earnings that missed estimates and guided to $200B in capex, sending shares down >10% after hours and dragging tech futures (Nasdaq futures -1.2%). This is a MAG7 carve-out contradicting the broader 'AI capex is good' narrative. Additionally, SpaceX's first lockup expiry (911M shares) and its $18.4B quarterly capex (mostly AI infrastructure) are pressuring the stock, and the company announced a $16.8B semiconductor fab in Texas. Polysilicon tariffs (15% + price floors) were signed by Trump, impacting solar/semiconductor supply chains. Other notable earnings: FIGS +26% AH, QNST +24% AH, SoundHound +10%, DDOG -19%, Celsius -18%, Trade Desk weak. Insider selling at Cloudflare (NET) by CFO ($16.5M) is notable. North Korea missile test and India's Agni-4 test add geopolitical noise but are not market-moving for US equities.