WS #13575

The dominant Strait of Hormuz escalation narrative is ESCALATING, with multiple sources (Reuters, GDELT, Newsquawk, NBR, BT, Jerusalem Post) confirming Iran's parliament is reviewing a bill to ban US/Israeli ships from the strait and fine violators up to 20% of cargo value. This drove Brent crude up 3.8% to $82.49 and WTI up 2.75% to $77.29, while US stocks fell (Dow -0.85%, S&P -0.18%, Nasdaq -0.06%) on renewed inflation fears. The Iran-Oman deal terms are viewed as unfavorable to the US, with Iran demanding control over ship entry, contradicting earlier optimism. Fed Chair Warsh is reportedly willing to hike in September if inflation prints hot, and Fed's Musalem confirmed he favored a hike at last week's FOMC, seeing underlying inflation at 2.5-3%. This hawkish Fed stance, combined with rising oil, pressures growth stocks and supports energy names. In earnings, Sandisk (SNDK -6.7%) and Western Digital (WDC -13%) fell on weak guidance despite strong AI demand, while Datadog (DDOG -19%) dropped on high expectations. Alphabet (GOOGL) raised $25B in bonds with $115B demand, signaling strong AI capex appetite. Cathie Wood's ARK bought $17.6M of NVDA, a bullish counter-signal to AI spending fears. New Mexico court ordered Meta (META) to pay $567M plus $375M penalties and impose usage caps for minors, a regulatory overhang. Doximity (DOCS) surged 76% AH on double beat. Airbnb (ABNB) rose 8.35% on strong Q2 and raised outlook. UK cleared Paramount-Warner merger, removing a hurdle. US imposed 15% polysilicon tariff and price floors, benefiting domestic solar/semiconductor producers. Overall, oil-driven inflation and Fed hawkishness are the key macro drivers, with energy bullish and tech mixed.