WS #13577

The dominant market theme remains the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is now in a delicate diplomatic phase. Multiple sources (Al Jazeera, CNBC, GDELT, Polymarket) corroborate that a US-Iran-Oman deal to reopen the strait is close, with Trump stating the war 'can't go much longer' and that a deal could come 'pretty soon.' However, this optimism is being offset by fresh escalatory signals: Iran is reportedly weighing a ban on US ships from Hormuz, Houthis attacked Saudi forces in Yemen killing 58, and Saudi Arabia is preparing for potential coordinated drone/missile attacks from Iran-backed militias. Oil prices have jumped over 1% (WTI ~$78, Brent ~$82.5) on these renewed tensions, which is bearish for airlines and bullish for energy names. The counter-signal is the potential Hormuz deal itself, which would dampen the oil spike and ease inflation concerns, but it is not yet finalized and faces hurdles (Khamenei approval, US rejection of tolls).