WS #13584

The dominant Strait of Hormuz narrative is ESCALATING with a new, concrete development: Iran and Oman have reportedly reached an understanding on a 60-day reopening deal, but Iran's draft plan (under parliamentary review) would permanently ban US and Israeli ships and impose compensation/fines on other nations, which the US rejects. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Al Arabiya, Xinhua, Fars, CNBC, Reuters, and various GDELT items) and is driving oil prices up ~1.74% to $83.89 Brent, with Hormuz traffic down to 33 vessels this week vs 50 last week. This is a high-significance geopolitical development with direct oil market implications. Separately, a new US trade action: Trump signed an executive order imposing a 15% tariff and price floors on polysilicon imports (effective Dec 4), which will benefit US polysilicon producers but hurt solar panel makers and allied countries (Germany, South Korea). This is corroborated by Xinhua, DIGITIMES, and Reuters analysis. On the earnings front, The Trade Desk (TTD) reported a double miss (EPS $0.34 vs $0.40, revenue $715M vs ~$750M) and is down 24% after hours, a significant single-stock mover. Also, AMD's Q2 FY26 results show strong growth (revenue +50% YoY, Data Center +107%), which is a positive signal for AMD. Other notable earnings: Western Digital and Sandisk fell 13% and 7% respectively on disappointing guidance, weighing on memory stocks and Nasdaq futures. Meta was ordered to pay $567 million by a New Mexico court for mental health harm to young users, a legal overhang. Boeing faces an FAA airworthiness directive for inspections of 471 737 MAX jets over fuselage cracks, a negative for BA. North Korea fired a short-range ballistic missile, a geopolitical risk event but likely low market impact. The US munitions stockpile depletion story (80% of interceptors used) is being countered by Trump's denial, but this is a carry-forward from previous awareness and not new. Overall, the key signals are the Hormuz deal escalation, polysilicon tariffs, and TTD's earnings miss.