WS #13588

The dominant market narrative is the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is ESCALATING. Iran's parliament is reviewing a draft bill to ban US and Israeli ships from the strait and impose fees of 5-7% of cargo value, with 20% fines for violations. This has pushed Brent crude back above $83/bbl and WTI near $78, reversing earlier peace-deal optimism. The US has redirected 49 commercial vessels since July 14, and CENTCOM is actively managing maritime traffic. This is a counter-signal to the prior 'deal imminent' narrative, and it is bearish for oil-sensitive sectors and bullish for energy. Separately, Trump has ordered a new 15% tariff on polysilicon imports effective December 4, aimed at protecting US chip and solar supply chains from China. This is bullish for US solar and domestic polysilicon producers but bearish for importers and could raise costs for chipmakers. In company news, Meta was ordered to pay an additional $567 million in a New Mexico child safety ruling, bringing total penalties to nearly $1 billion; the company will appeal, but this adds regulatory overhang. ACM Research beat estimates and raised FY26 outlook, signaling strength in semiconductor equipment. Apple is facing DRAM supply constraints for iPhone 18, with CXMT refusing price cuts, which could pressure Apple's margins and supply. Alphabet completed a $25 billion AI bond issuance, the largest of the year, which is drawing liquidity away from Treasuries and pushing yields higher. BofA's sentiment gauge hit its most extreme bullish level since 2021, a contrarian warning. China's crude imports rebounded 22% in July, supporting oil demand. Gold is heading for its strongest weekly gain since January, above $4,260/oz, as lower oil prices ease inflation fears.