WS #13590

The dominant theme remains the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is now showing signs of DE-ESCALATION with a potential interim deal, but oil prices are firming on doubts about the terms. Trump says negotiations are 'moving along' and the strait is 'sort of open right now', but Iran is seeking 5-7% fees on vessels and considering banning US/Israeli ships, while vessel traffic has declined. Brent is up 0.9% to $83.24, WTI up 0.5% to $77.71, with both benchmarks on track for an 8% weekly loss. This is a counter-signal to the earlier bearish oil thesis: the market is pricing in a managed/conditional corridor, not a full reopening, so oil remains supported. Separately, Ukraine struck two Russian oil refineries (Bashneft-Novoil and Slavneft-Yanos) in its deepest drone attacks yet, and also hit a Wildberries logistics center, which could tighten Russian fuel supplies and support oil prices. In corporate news, Dream Finders Homes agreed to acquire Beazer Homes for $33.50/share in cash (~$2.2B EV), a significant M&A event for homebuilders. Michael Burry disclosed short positions on Oracle and Nebius, citing leverage risks in tech/cloud, which is a bearish signal for those names. Several earnings beats stand out: Hertz (HTZ) surged 20% on Q2 beat, Twilio (TWLO) jumped 17% on strong results and raised guidance, and Trulieve Cannabis beat estimates. On the macro side, gold is rallying to $4,278 (third day of gains) on Middle East tensions and yen weakness, while the US-Japan yen intervention using euros has caused friction with the ECB, a notable FX development. The US jobs report is due today and will be a key catalyst.