WS #13601

The dominant market narrative is the July US jobs report, which showed a surprise contraction of 23,000 jobs versus expectations of +80,000, with downward revisions of 103,000 to prior months. This has sharply reduced the probability of a September Fed rate hike (from 57% to 44% per Polymarket), triggering a rally in equities (S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.7%), a drop in the US dollar, a surge in gold (+$122 to $4,360), and a fall in 2-year Treasury yields. This is a major macro shift that is bullish for growth/tech stocks and bearish for the dollar, while gold benefits. The Iran-Hormuz situation remains a key geopolitical overhang, with ADNOC reporting attacks on 15 vessels, one fatality, and 20 injuries, but the US-Iran-Oman negotiations are reportedly 'proceeding well,' providing a counter-signal that could ease oil prices. Additionally, several high-profile earnings beats are driving individual stock moves: Cloudflare (NET) surged ~12-16% on raised guidance, Airbnb (ABNB) jumped ~14-16% on strong Q2, and The Trade Desk (TTD) plunged ~26% on a downgrade. These are actionable signals for the next trading hours.