WS #13607

The dominant market narrative is the weak July US jobs report, which showed a net loss of 23,000 jobs versus expectations of +83,000, with significant downward revisions to May and June. This has sharply reduced the probability of a Fed rate hike, sending the dollar to its lowest since May (DXY ~99.5) and Treasury yields lower (10Y ~4.63%). Equities are rallying on the dovish repricing, led by tech (Nasdaq +0.9%), with Airbnb (+14%) and Atlassian (+35%) surging on strong earnings. This is a STABLE-to-ESCALATING dovish narrative, with no counter-signal yet. Separately, a major geopolitical development is emerging: reports that Iran and Oman have reached a framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran controlling entry and Oman exit, and no initial fees. This is a potential counter-signal to the oil supply crisis, though unconfirmed and US demands for free passage remain. Oil prices are volatile, with Brent around $82.70 and WTI near $75-76, and the US has stopped importing Saudi oil for the first time since 1985 due to the blockade. The Houthi blockade is expanding north toward Yanbu, threatening the Suez rerouting. In corporate news, Meta was hit with a $942 million judgment in New Mexico over minor protection, which it will appeal; Under Armour cut its outlook; and several tech names (Cloudflare, Twilio, Shopify) received price target raises. The White House ballroom court ruling and Cassidy's support for Blanche are political noise with no direct market impact.