WS #13615

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil and the Strait of Hormuz, but this window shows a notable de-escalation signal: a potential Iran-Oman framework agreement for the strait, corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, Iranian officials, GDELT). This has driven oil prices down (Brent -0.85% to $81.79, WTI -0.69% to $76.76) and supported a broad risk-on rally (S&P 500 +0.5%, Nasdaq +1.2%, DAX +0.7% to record). However, the deal is not finalized—Iran seeks fees, US rejects them—so oil remains volatile. The July jobs report (payrolls -23k, unemployment 4.1%, participation 61.4%) is a key macro signal: it removes September rate hike expectations (FedWatch now 58% chance of hold), pushing yields lower and gold up ~3%. This is a counter-signal to the prior hawkish narrative. In tech, OpenAI's Astra model slowdown due to critical cyber capabilities is a high-significance negative for AI sentiment, but it's offset by strong earnings from Airbnb (+15-16%, raised guidance) and AAOI (record revenue, demand outstripping supply), which support the AI infrastructure thesis. Also notable: US Senate advancing sweeping Russia energy sanctions bill, which could tighten energy supply and support oil prices, partially countering the Hormuz de-escalation. Berkshire Hathaway earnings due Saturday with expected buyback acceleration is a watch item. Overall, markets are risk-on but with mixed signals: de-escalation in Hormuz vs. Russia sanctions, weak jobs vs. strong tech earnings.