WS #13623

The dominant macro theme this window is the US labor market contraction, which is now ESCALATING with a major new data point: July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 (vs +80,000 expected), with May/June revised down by 103,000. This has sharply reduced Fed hike odds (September hike probability fell to ~44% from 55%), driving a rally in equities (S&P 500 +0.46%, Nasdaq +1%), a drop in Treasury yields (2-year -5.2bp to 4.193%), and a surge in gold (+2.1% to $4,395.80) and silver (+4.2%). The dollar weakened against the yen and euro. This is a high-significance macro development with broad market impact, and it counters the prior hawkish Fed narrative. Separately, the US Senate passed the Lindsey Graham Russia/Iran sanctions bill (86-11), authorizing up to 100% tariffs on top buyers of Russian energy (China, India) — a geopolitical/energy supply development that could support oil prices and affect energy importers. Also notable: Doximity (DOCS) shares more than doubled on AI search profitability, and Airbnb (ABNB) surged 15% on strong earnings and AI spending commentary. Solar stocks rallied on new polysilicon tariffs. The Strait of Hormuz situation remains a two-sided risk: Bessent said it will become irrelevant in two years, but Iran insists on fees, keeping oil and gold premiums elevated. The US-Japan yen intervention (selling euros without informing ECB) is a novel FX development that could have second-order effects on EUR/USD and global reserve dynamics.